June 10, 2025 — Karachi: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began the week on a cautious note, registering a modest gain of 82 points as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) monetary policy decision, which ultimately held the benchmark interest rate at 11%.
The performance reflected a range-bound trading session, shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a mixed bag of corporate and economic developments at home.
Market Opens Strong but Momentum Fades
The benchmark KSE-100 index opened Monday on a strong footing, hitting an intra-day high of 122,903 points, spurred by optimism from recovering global equities and budget expectations for FY26. However, the bullish momentum proved short-lived as profit-taking set in, pulling the index down to a session low of 121,890 by midday.
The index finally settled at 122,225.36, up 81.79 points (0.07%), showing resilience in the face of macro uncertainty.
“Stocks advanced despite geopolitical risks amid speculation about the SBP’s policy decision. Recovery in global markets and IMF-driven optimism about privatisation supported the market,” said Ahsan Mehanti, Director at Arif Habib Corp.
SBP Maintains Status Quo on Interest Rate
As widely expected, the central bank left the policy rate unchanged at 11%, reflecting a wait-and-see approach amid rising regional conflict and global uncertainty. The SBP is focusing on maintaining macroeconomic stability while keeping inflation expectations in check.
“The market consolidated ahead of the Monetary Policy Statement. Investors showed caution due to the Israel-Iran conflict and awaited clarity on future rate directions,” commented Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd.
Index Drivers: Banks and Energy Outperform, Cement and Power Drag
According to Topline Securities, the key contributors to the day’s gain included:
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Bank AL Habib
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OGDC
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National Bank of Pakistan (NBP)
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Mari Petroleum
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Meezan Bank
These stocks collectively added 371 points to the index.
Meanwhile, declines in:
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Engro Holdings
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Pakgen Power
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Lucky Cement
shaved off 255 points, muting the broader upside.
Trading Volumes Surge Amid Speculative Interest
Despite the narrow price movement, market activity remained strong. Total trading volume surged to 1.22 billion shares, significantly higher than 968.3 million shares on Friday. The traded value stood at Rs25.7 billion, indicating heightened short-term speculative interest, especially in small-cap stocks.
“The market saw brisk activity in second-tier scrips, signaling short-term speculation. Given geopolitical volatility, we advise investors to be risk-aware,” noted Mubashir Anis Naviwala, analyst at JS Research.
Volume Leaders: Telecom and Low-Price Stocks in Focus
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WorldCall Telecom:
267.1 million shares traded, up by 17 paisa to Rs1.62 -
Pervez Ahmed Consultancy:
92.03 million shares, up Rs1.00 to Rs3.93 -
First Capital Securities:
86.02 million shares, up 79 paisa to Rs3.85
Foreign investors also showed moderate buying interest, with net purchases of Rs243.5 million, according to the National Clearing Company.
Corporate Watch: Fauji Fertiliser Eyes PIA Stake
Among corporate headlines, Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) announced board approval to submit an Expression of Interest (EOI) for the PIA Holding Company, as the government seeks to sell a 51-100% stake in Pakistan International Airlines by June 19.
PIA shares reacted sharply to the news, rising 7.95%, while FFC edged down 0.26% as markets digested the implications.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Market strategists are closely watching the 120,000 level as a key support. A break below this could trigger further corrections, while a sustained rebound above 123,000 could set the stage for a potential push toward 130,000, contingent on macro stability.
“Market direction hinges on Middle East developments. Improved sentiment could set the index on a path to 130,000,” forecasted Mubashir Naviwala.
Public Backlash Forces Government to Rein in FBR Arrest Powers, Simplifies Tax on Cash Deliveries
Investor Sentiment: Wait-and-Watch Mode Prevails
In light of geopolitical tensions, the IMF programme, the upcoming budget, and corporate earnings, many institutional and retail investors are adopting a conservative approach.
Market analysts recommend portfolio protection, selective buying, and low exposure until clarity emerges on interest rates, the privatization roadmap, and fiscal policies under Budget 2025–26.
Conclusion: A Day of Caution with Glimmers of Strength
While geopolitical events continue to cast a shadow over investor confidence, the PSX’s ability to stay in positive territory suggests underlying resilience. The decision by the SBP to hold interest rates steady offers stability, but much depends on fiscal clarity and peace prospects in the region.
For now, volatility remains the name of the game, and seasoned investors will likely focus on defensive sectors, dividend stocks, and privatization-linked plays.
