A high-stakes debate is brewing in Islamabad as the Senate Sub-Committee on Commerce grapples with alarming estimates about the scale of illicit trade in Pakistan. The Ministry of Commerce has publicly stated that it neither collects data on illegal trade nor holds responsibility for curbing it—calling instead for a “Whole-of-Government” approach to tackle the issue.
This revelation came during a meeting chaired by Senator Sarmad Ali, where the committee reviewed a report by the economic think tank PRIME. The report claims that 56% of trade in key sectors is illicit, with an estimated value of Rs 750 billion annually. PRIME’s breakdown includes:
- Rs 300 billion in illegal tobacco trade
- Rs 106 billion in tyres and lubricants
- Rs 270 billion in petrol/diesel
- Rs 60–65 billion in pharmaceuticals
- Rs 10 billion in tea
Additionally, a former FBR official cited a $16 billion annual volume of illicit trade in a statement to the Competition Commission of Pakistan.
However, the data’s credibility came under fire. Senators Faisal Saleem Rahman and Zeeshan Khan Zada questioned the survey-based methodology, especially the claim that tobacco smuggling alone amounts to Rs 300 billion—figures also promoted by the national “Behtareen Pakistan” campaign. Senator Rahman emphasized the need to protect tobacco growers in districts like Swabi, Mardan, and Charsadda, while also defending law enforcement agencies against potentially misleading narratives.
The committee demanded independent verification of the data and recommended convening a joint stakeholder meeting involving:
- The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR)
- Law enforcement agencies
- Pakistan Tobacco Company and Philip Morris
- Local cigarette manufacturers and growers
- Officials from the pharmaceutical and petroleum sectors
The Senate also plans a dedicated inquiry into pharmaceutical smuggling, signaling growing concern about revenue losses and regulatory failure.
The session highlights a systemic gap in governance: while estimates paint a grim picture of Pakistan’s underground economy, institutional accountability remains fragmented. A coordinated response—grounded in verified data and stakeholder collaboration—may be Pakistan’s only way forward.
