KSE-100 Falls 882 Points as Budget and IMF Uncertainty Shake Investor Confidence

Market Update: PSX Kicks Off the Week in the Red, KSE-100 Sheds 882 Points

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began the trading week on a negative trajectory, with the benchmark KSE-100 index plunging 882 points on Monday. Investor concerns over the delayed federal budget for FY 2025-26—now scheduled for June 10—and the stalled approval of Pakistan’s circular debt resolution plan by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) contributed to the bearish mood.

Despite the decline, trading activity remained strong. The session closed with a total volume of 636 million shares and a traded value of Rs18.6 billion.

Budget Uncertainty and IMF Stalemate Rattle Sentiment

Market analysts, including Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corp, highlighted that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding budgetary measures—such as potential hikes in petroleum levies—and delays in IMF negotiations led to profit-taking ahead of fiscal announcements. Additionally, the depreciation of the rupee and mounting geopolitical tensions further dampened investor confidence.

By the end of the session, the KSE-100 index had dropped by 881.55 points, a 0.74% decline, to close at 118,221.12.

Topline Securities noted that the absence of positive triggers encouraged investors to adopt a risk-averse stance, especially as questions about IMF conditions lingered. The index saw an intra-day low of nearly 952 points before closing at 118,221.

Energy Stocks Suffer While K-Electric Surges

Energy sector stocks were among the hardest hit, with Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan State Oil (PSO) dragging the index lower. Collectively, Engro Holdings, Systems Limited, PSO, Fauji Fertilizer Company, and OGDC wiped out 452 points.

Conversely, K-Electric emerged as the volume leader, trading 247 million shares and hitting its upper price circuit. The surge followed regulatory approval of a dollar-linked, multi-year distribution tariff for FY24 to FY30, fostering optimism among investors.

Other notable gainers included Pakistan Services Limited (+8%) and Attock Refinery (+4.03%), while top losers were Systems Limited (-3%), PSO (-3.46%), and Engro Holdings (-1.82%).

What Lies Ahead?

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) observed that the index is approaching a technical support range and may rebound past 120,000 points, provided market conditions stabilize.

JS Global analyst Muhammad Hasan Ather added that investor sentiment hinges on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the finalization of fiscal policy. Until then, volatility is expected to persist.

On Monday, 467 companies were traded. Of these, 188 advanced, 235 declined, and 44 remained unchanged. Foreign investors offloaded equities worth Rs90.4 million, according to the National Clearing Company.

Final Thoughts

The market’s performance this week reflects a cautious environment driven by fiscal and external uncertainty. Until clear direction is provided on the budget and IMF agreements, investors are likely to remain on edge.

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