Iron Ore Futures – June 20, 2025
Iron ore futures continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, extending losses into a sixth consecutive session, as China’s persistent property market downturn and seasonal demand weakness weighed heavily on the outlook for the steelmaking raw material.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-traded September contract slipped 0.36% to 692.5 yuan ($96.32) per metric ton as of 03:00 GMT. Meanwhile, benchmark July futures on the Singapore Exchange were little changed at $92.35 per ton.
The trend reflects a broader slowdown in downstream demand and the off-season lull in construction activity across China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore.
“Inventories continue to accumulate at ports, and sentiment remains cautious due to weak housing sales,” noted Hexun Futures in a morning report.
According to data from Steelhome, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports climbed by approximately 1.06% week-on-week to 133.4 million tons as of June 13 — a sign of sluggish demand absorption.
Real Estate: The Underlying Drag
China’s real estate sector — historically a major driver of steel and iron ore consumption — remains in deep trouble. Official data for May confirmed that new home prices continued to decline, cementing a two-year-long stagnation.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs now forecasts that housing demand will remain substantially below its 2017 peak for years, pointing to a structural slump in the sector that once powered China’s industrial engine.
As a result, steel mills have cut purchases and adopted a wait-and-see approach amid weak forward visibility.
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Strong Dollar Adds External Pressure
Externally, the U.S. dollar index was trading at 98.957, on track for a 0.8% weekly gain — its best performance since late February. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like iron ore more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, further dampening demand.
Other Steelmaking Inputs Falter
Other raw materials used in steel production also struggled:
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Coking coal dropped 1.07%
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Coke declined 0.69%
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel benchmarks were mixed:
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Rebar: -0.2%
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Hot-rolled coil: -0.2%
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Stainless steel: +0.56%
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Wire rod: +0.06%
Outlook: No Immediate Relief
With real estate sales weak, seasonal construction demand slowing, and iron ore inventories piling up, the short-term outlook remains bearish. While some recovery might be expected later in the year with infrastructure stimulus, for now, China’s property-driven drag is the dominant force, and iron ore bulls remain on the backfoot.