Global Copper Market Update
Copper prices on Thursday remained largely flat on both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) as investors balanced geopolitical risks with supply-side fundamentals.
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LME three-month copper: Up $2 to $9,657.50/ton
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SHFE most-traded copper: Down 30 yuan to ¥78,590/ton (~$10,930)
The calm in copper pricing comes even as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its seventh day, with global markets closely tracking remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has kept investors guessing on whether the U.S. will escalate its involvement in Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Iranian nuclear facilities.
Supply Constraints Cushion Prices
Despite global uncertainty, copper prices have remained supported due to tight supply conditions. Inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen sharply—down 60% since March—to just 107,350 tons, their lowest level since May 2024.
This depletion in stocks highlights ongoing logistical bottlenecks and slower-than-expected output from major producers, reinforcing structural tightness in the global copper market.
Impact of Energy Prices and Fed Policy
While energy prices have spiked on geopolitical fears, analysts at ANZ Bank warn that a sustained rally in energy costs could eventually weigh on copper markets by raising production expenses.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady signaled potential rate cuts in 2025. However, the U.S. dollar index firmed against major currencies, tempering gains in greenback-denominated commodities such as copper.
Other Base Metals: Mixed Performance
LME:
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Aluminium: Flat at $2,546
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Tin: Up 0.3% to $32,465
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Zinc: Up 0.1% to $2,640
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Lead: Up 0.1% to $1,995.5
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Nickel: Up 0.1% to $15,065
SHFE:
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Nickel: +0.6% to ¥119,030/ton
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Tin: +0.3% to ¥264,240/ton
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Aluminium: +0.2% to ¥20,680/ton
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Lead: +0.2% to ¥16,870/ton
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Zinc: -0.1% to ¥21,980/ton
Outlook
In the short term, geopolitical developments and currency fluctuations will likely dominate market sentiment. However, the underlying supply tightness in copper and other industrial metals remains a critical factor offering price support.
As noted by analysts, unless there is a resolution to both the conflict in the Middle East and macro uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, commodity markets will continue to see choppy, range-bound trade with a slight upside bias.