China’s Coal Imports Could Drop by 100 Million Tons in 2025 as Renewables Surge and Demand Peaks
China, the world’s largest consumer and importer of coal, could slash its coal imports by as much as 100 million metric tons in 2025, according to a top industry official. This anticipated drop—representing an 18.4% annual decrease—may place further downward pressure on global coal prices, which are already trading near multi-year lows.
The forecast was shared by Xuegang Li, Vice President of the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, during the Coaltrans China conference on Wednesday.
From Record Highs to Strategic Retrenchment
China’s coal imports surged to a record 542.7 million tons in 2024, driven by:
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Low global coal prices
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Cost advantages over domestic coal
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Strong winter and industrial demand
However, early data for 2025 tells a different story. Coal imports fell by 8% during the first five months of the year, signaling a likely full-year decline. Li estimates that total imports could drop by 50 to 100 million tons by December.
Why China Is Cutting Coal Imports
Several structural and policy-driven factors are driving this reversal:
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Shift to Domestic Supply
China is prioritizing domestic coal production to improve energy security and reduce exposure to global market volatility. -
Rising Renewable Energy Output
Wind, solar, and hydro output are growing rapidly, reducing reliance on thermal coal for electricity generation. -
Slowing Demand for Steel
The construction slowdown and decarbonization efforts are weighing on metallurgical coal demand, used primarily in steelmaking. -
Environmental Policies & Decarbonization Goals
China aims to peak coal consumption between 2027 and 2028, with a gradual decline to follow. Li noted this peak could be “spread across 3–5 years,” marking a prolonged period of stagnant or falling demand.
Implications for Global Coal Markets
If China cuts imports by 100 million tons, it would mark one of the largest annual reductions in global coal trade volume. Here’s what that means:
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Global Benchmark Prices May Fall Further: With demand easing in the world’s top market, thermal coal prices—already depressed—could face even more pressure.
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Exporters Will Feel the Pinch: Top suppliers to China such as Indonesia, Russia, Mongolia, and Australia may face reduced export volumes and slimmer profit margins.
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Increased Market Volatility: Sudden shifts in Chinese demand can ripple across coal futures and global trade flows, affecting policy and investment decisions worldwide.
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Thermal vs. Metallurgical Coal Outlook: While no breakdown was provided, both segments are expected to face downward pressure, especially thermal coal due to rapid electrification from renewables.
Russia Feels the Impact Early
Notably, China’s coal imports from Russia have already begun to fall, reflecting a broader pivot to domestic sourcing. This shift underlines how geopolitical relationships and logistical factors now play a secondary role to internal energy policy and price competitiveness.
Conclusion: A Turning Point in Global Coal Dependence?
China’s decision to scale back coal imports could be a watershed moment for the fossil fuel industry. With the world’s largest market stepping back, exporters may need to diversify, innovate, or scale down. The transition away from coal is gaining pace—not just in policy statements but in real market behavior.
For global stakeholders—from miners to investors to climate policymakers—2025 may be the year that confirms the beginning of coal’s long-term decline in Asia’s largest economy.