China has officially broken ground on what it claims will be the world’s largest hydropower project, a $170 billion engineering feat expected to generate enough electricity to power the entire United Kingdom annually. The new project will dwarf the existing Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, and sent a surge through China’s construction and engineering stocks after Premier Li Qiang made the announcement.
What Is the Project?
The project is located on the Yarlung Zangbo River, known downstream as the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh. It involves the construction of five dams along a 50-kilometer stretch where the river drops nearly 2,000 meters from the Tibetan Plateau. The first phase of electricity generation is targeted for the early-to-mid 2030s, though precise details remain scarce.
Why Are Neighbours Worried?
India and Bangladesh heavily rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water. The lack of transparency from Beijing has heightened regional tensions, especially given the historical India-China border conflict in the 1960s.
Iron Ore Futures Rise as China-Australia Ties Strengthen, but Property Woes Linger
Earlier this year, Arunachal Pradesh’s chief minister warned that the dam might reduce 80% of water flow through the Indian state and cause flooding in Assam. Experts also fear that reduced sediment flow, essential for downstream agriculture, will impact fertile floodplains.
Moreover, security analysts and water experts, including Sayanangshu Modak of the University of Arizona, speculate that China could potentially weaponize water during future conflicts, further aggravating geopolitical risks.
China’s Stance
China maintains the project is a matter of sovereign right, emphasizing benefits such as clean energy, flood control, and job creation. Beijing claims it has shared hydrological information and engaged in disaster mitigation cooperation with downstream countries.
India’s foreign and water ministries have not responded publicly, but Indian experts argue that the dam’s impact may be overstated. Modak explains that since most Brahmaputra water comes from monsoon rainfall south of the Himalayas, the upstream flow from China is relatively smaller.
Furthermore, China claims it is building a “run-of-the-river” dam — a design that allows natural flow without major reservoirs, thereby reducing the chance of significant downstream disruption.
India’s Response
India has proposed two major dams on the Siang River (its name for Yarlung Zangbo), including an ambitious 11.5-gigawatt project in Arunachal Pradesh. These efforts aim to establish prior water usage rights and counterbalance China’s hydropower influence, strengthening India’s case in any future disputes over river diversion.
“If India can show that it has been using the waters, then China cannot unilaterally divert,” says Modak.
A Global Trend of Water Conflicts
China’s dam project is part of a broader global pattern of disputes over transboundary rivers. In South Asia, tensions persist between India and Pakistan over the Indus Waters Treaty. Elsewhere, Egypt and Ethiopia have sparred over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River, even leading to threats of military action.
Safety Concerns in a Hazard-Prone Region
Adding to the complexity, the dam will be constructed in an earthquake-prone zone with high risk of landslides, glacial lake outbursts, and extreme weather. Experts worry about safety, particularly after a major earthquake recently struck Tibet.
A smaller hydropower project in the region operates only four months per year due to high-altitude engineering challenges and brutal winters, raising questions about the feasibility and safety of a megaproject of this scale.
